Keir Starmer has insisted that the UK-US special relationship will “prosper” under Donald Trump but the British prime minister’s Labour government has multiple reasons to fear the Republican’s presidential comeback.
Possible trade wars, Labour ministers’ unflattering comments about Trump, and any role for Starmer critic Elon Musk in Trump’s administration would make for a bumpy ride between the allies.
The UK’s “iron-clad” support for Ukraine in its war against Russia’s invasion and “unwavering commitment” to the NATO military alliance are also likely to become major bones of contention, experts said.
Starmer made a first move late on Wednesday, phoning Trump to offer his congratulations, telling reporters at a European summit in Budapest Thursday that the call was “very positive, very constructive”.
But Richard Whitman, an international relations professor at the University of Kent, said the centre-left government in London will be feeling “nervous” about Trump’s return to the White House.
“Most of the broad parameters of British foreign policy are set by responding to what are the major preoccupations of the United States,” he told AFP, noting doubts over Trump’s commitment to Ukraine and NATO.
Britain has been one of Ukraine’s biggest financial and military backers since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and any shift in policy by Trump would leave the country in an unenviable position.
“(The UK) can’t do a 180-degree shift on Ukraine because it’s invested too much,” said Whitman.
Simon Fraser, formerly the top civil servant in the UK’s foreign ministry, added that the UK-US relationship could be complicated by Trump’s approach to the European Union — and whether that includes tariffs on allies.
Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 20 percent on all US imports and 60 percent on Chinese goods.