Mexico Cuts Growth Forecast For 2025
The Mexican government cut its growth forecast for this year as the country faces uncertainty and aggressive trade policies from its main trading partner, the United States.
US President Donald Trump has imposed a slew of tariffs on Mexican products, including automobiles and steel, threatening bilateral trade that exceeded $800 billion last year.
Mexico’s finance ministry on Monday reduced its 2025 growth outlook to 0.5-1.5 per cent, down from the 1.5-2.3 per cent it forecast in April.
The revision is slightly more in line with market expectations and forecasts by the Bank of Mexico, which predicted growth of 0.4-0.6 per cent.
The Mexican economy, the second largest in Latin America, expanded 1.2 per cent in 2024.
The government also predicted the economy to grow between 1.8 and 2.8 per cent in 2026 — above market and central bank expectations.
“The Mexican economy will continue to show resilience thanks to strong household consumption, domestic investment and the country’s strategic position in global value chains,” the ministry said in a statement.
The central bank forecast growth of 1.1 per cent.
The finance ministry also announced that 3 per cent of GDP would be allocated in 2026 to “social programmes that will directly benefit almost 82 per cent of families” in Mexico.
A cash transfer program for vulnerable sectors is a cornerstone of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s economic plan.
