Less than three years to the next general election, Nigeria’s political landscape is agog with permutations, especially as to which zone and even individual, who will occupy the coveted position of Office of the President.
The incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, is expected to bow out on May 29, 2023, after serving out the constitutionally allowed two terms and already, the President has given a hint about his retirement plan. He said he will retire to Daura (his home town).
“This is my second and final term, at the end of which I will, God willing, go to Daura and settle down,” he revealed during a meeting with some traditional rulers from across the country at the presidential villa in March, 2019.
But, three years ahead of the poll that will see the emergence of Buhari’s successor; it is a fierce debate over, where power should shift to as well as the likely heir to the coveted throne.
Geopolitical zones and even names of some personalities are presently being touted, with some continuously resonating.
On paper, power is expected to shift to the South in 2023 given the zoning arrangement between the country’s two geographical divides – North and South, which took effect from 1999. However, indications are that the battle for the 2023 presidency may go beyond that if emerging developments in the polity are anything to go by.
The North, for instance, seems not disposed to relinquishing power after Buhari. Indication to this emerged shortly after the President’s re-election in February last year. The euphoria over his victory at the polls had hardly gone down, when some northern political leaders started canvassing the need for their region to hold on to power beyond 2023.
Their clamour was stemmed on the need for the North to hold on to power for at least another four years after Buhari’s eight years for the region to be at par with the South.
The present democratic dispensation is 21 years old and the power rotation arrangement, though not constitutional, has seen the South had the presidency for 13 years through Chief Olusegun Obasanjo (South-West, 1999-2007) and Jonathan (South-South, 2010-2015), while the North would have been in power for 11 years by the time Buhari completes his second term in 2023 (2015-2023) as Umaru Yaar’Adua, who succeeded Obasanjo in 2007, passed on barely three years in office.
The plot by the North started like a pun, when the national president of Arewa Arewa Youth Consultative Forum (AYCF), Alhaji Yerima Shettima, said in a media interview that there was no going back for the region’s bid for the 2023 presidency, but later gained the support of most northern political elites.
They made a case for the abandonment of the zoning arrangement, not only for the Office of President, but for other political offices as currently obtainable in the country.
But down South, most political leaders maintain that canvassing for an end to rotational presidency at this point in Nigeria’s history is not in the interest of the country. According to them, Nigeria’s unity is presently under threat over rising insecurity, so abolishing zoning might lead to civil and constitutional crisis, which may aggravate the issues on ground.
While the list of political gladiators across the various geopolitical jostling to succeed Buhari keeps growing by the day, the Igbo of South-East Nigeria are insisting that 2023 is the time for one of their own to lead the country.
They predicate their quest on the principle of equity and fairness. According to them, besides Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, who was a ceremonial president (1963-1966) and Major General Johnson Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi, who was military head of state between January 16 and July 29, 1966, no Igbo has led Africa’s most populous nation in the last 50 years.
This and other perceived imbalances in the system, advocates of a Nigerian president of Igbo extraction say, have left the people of the South-East to continue to cry marginalisation.