Trump Still Trailing Behind Biden in Republican State of Arizona
A new survey released Monday morning shows that President Donald Trump is trailing behind Former Vice President Joe Biden in Arizona. The survey, conducted by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights, shows Biden leading Trump by a 52 percent to 42 percent margin.
OH Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan firm, shows Biden leading Trump throughout the year, by between four and ten points. In August, before either party convention, the firm found Biden ahead 49 percent to 45 percent. Biden’s current lead comes in a survey sample in which Republicans outnumber Democrats by five percentage points.
The latest poll underscores the foundations of Biden’s lead over Trump, in both national and swing-state surveys: He is winning about the same percentage of voters as Hillary Clinton did in 2016 among groups that lean toward Democrats, but he is doing substantially better among groups that chose Trump over Clinton four years ago.
Trump’s campaign dismissed the poll. In a call with reporters last week, campaign manager Bill Stepien said internal surveys showed Trump leading Biden by two points.
“This is not a serious poll and it is not remotely accurate,” said Tim Murtaugh, the campaign’s communications chief.
Arizona has long been a base for Republicans. Some Arizona political observers believe the last two Republican nominees before Trump effectively masked the demographic changes that were taking place.
